Bangkok: The Thai baht is anticipated to experience volatility in the upcoming week as attention turns to the results of the general election and the movements of foreign funds.
According to Thai News Agency, the baht recently hit its weakest level in nearly two months, despite the Thai stock index closing higher for the fourth consecutive week. Looking forward, the baht is expected to remain unstable and possibly weaken further. Key factors influencing this trend include election outcomes, foreign fund flows, the US dollar, global gold prices, US interest rate signals, and corporate earnings. The research center has projected the baht's trading range to be between 31.30 and 32.00 baht per dollar, with the Thai stock index's support and resistance levels set at 1,330, 1,305, 1,375, and 1,400 points respectively.
Kasikorn Research Center reported that last week, the baht weakened due to profit-taking in gold and a stronger dollar, following the market's eased concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence. The baht reached its weakest point at 31.889 baht per dollar, the lowest since December 11, 2025, before recovering slightly towards the week's end. This recovery was attributed to buying back positions ahead of the election on February 8th and a slowdown in gold selling. The baht closed at 31.65 baht per dollar on February 6, 2026, compared to 31.48 baht per dollar earlier in the week.
For the week of February 9-13, 2026, Kasikorn Bank anticipates the Thai baht to trade within a range of 31.30-32.00 baht per US dollar. Kasikorn Research Center identifies several crucial monitoring points, including market reactions to the Thai general election results, foreign fund flows, Asian currency movements, global gold prices, and US interest rate signals from Federal Reserve statements. Important US economic data to watch includes retail sales, import and export price indices for December, non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as consumer inflation expectations and existing home sales.
In the Thai stock market, the SET Index initially weakened due to regional market trends and expectations regarding the new Federal Reserve chairman's potential stance on interest rate cuts. However, it rebounded, supported by foreign investor buying in the ICT and energy sectors. Despite some profit-taking in the TECH sector, the index surged towards the end of the week, reaching its highest level in over a year at 1,361.52 points. This was largely driven by foreign buying ahead of Thailand's general election. On February 6th, the SET Index closed at 1,354.01 points, marking a 2.14% increase from the previous week, while the average daily trading volume rose by 7.69% to 51,762.29 million baht.
For the following week, Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. predicts that the Thai stock index will have support levels at 1,330 and 1,305 points, with resistance levels at 1,375 and 1,400 points. Kasikorn Research Center highlights key factors to watch, including domestic political issues, Federal Reserve officials' statements, Q4 2025 earnings of Thai listed companies, and foreign capital flows. Key US economic data includes December retail sales, existing home sales, the consumer price index, non-farm payrolls, and the unemployment rate for January.