Bangkok: In an era dominated by shifting global power, Thailand is grappling with inevitable economic challenges.
According to Thai News Agency, the global order is at a critical juncture, transitioning from a system driven by rules and cooperation to one where the power and interests of nation-states take precedence over universal principles. Dr. Supavud Saichue emphasizes that this is not a temporary change but a fundamental shift in the global system's structure.
One significant indication of this modern shift is the move away from traditional concepts of globalization. Superpowers, notably the United States, are reassessing the world order they helped create, realizing that existing rules may not align with their national interests. Consequently, trade, security, and technology policies are increasingly guided by strategic interests rather than long-term cooperation.
In the new international political landscape, global rules are weakening while the bargaining power of individual countries becomes crucial. Nations unable to establish economic, technological, or strategic leverage risk becoming victims of decisions made by others.
Dr. Supavud highlights that Asia has become the global economy's center of gravity, serving as a major production hub and center for supply chains, advanced technologies, and a vast consumer market. Consequently, conflicts among superpowers often manifest in Asia, encompassing trade, technology, and security dimensions. However, cooperation in this new world comes with stringent conditions, as major powers expect allies to play strategic roles and bear greater costs, posing a challenge for medium and small-sized countries.
Reflecting on Thailand, Dr. Supavud notes that the economy's fragility is not only due to external factors but also stems from longstanding structural issues. Slowing economic growth, declining industrial competitiveness, and dependence on exports to a few major powers expose Thailand to increased risks in a volatile global environment. Non-tariff trade barriers, particularly those related to the environment and carbon, are becoming new conditions for global trade, directly impacting Thai businesses, especially SMEs with cost and technology limitations.
Dr. Supavud emphasizes that Thailand can no longer rely on short-term policies or temporary economic stimulus measures to navigate the new global landscape. What is needed is serious structural economic reform, starting with the energy system, greater access to clean energy, upgrading manufacturing and agricultural sectors, and developing workforce skills to match the modern economy. In a world of weakening rules and intensified competition, countries that fail to accelerate structural adjustments will gradually lose their competitiveness and bargaining power on the global stage. These lessons from the shift in the global order serve as a crucial warning sign for Thailand's future.