Bangkok: A dire warning has been issued for Bangkok, which is at risk of being submerged by 2030 due to a combination of environmental and infrastructural factors. Associate Professor Dr. Seree Suparatit, Director of the Climate Change and Disaster Center at Rangsit University and Vice President of the National Disaster Warning Council Foundation, highlighted the escalating threat during his appearance on the "Share the News" program on MCOT News FM 100.5.
According to Thai News Agency, the risk of Bangkok being submerged is driven by heavy rainfall, upstream runoff, and tidal surges. Global warming is exacerbating the situation by increasing water volume by 15-20%, with sea levels rising by an average of 1.3 centimeters annually. This could result in a 50-centimeter increase over the next five decades. Concurrently, land subsidence is occurring at 1-2 centimeters per year, leading Dr. Seree to assert that the submersion of Bangkok is inevitable, with the timeline being the only uncertainty.
The year 2030 is of particular concern as it is expected to be a "wet year" due to the La Ni±a phenomenon, bringing heavier rainfall than the severe floods of 2011. This poses a heightened risk of severe flooding between 2030 and 2032, with blocked upstream water catchment areas potentially directing excess water into Bangkok and overwhelming current flood barriers.
Existing flood protection measures are deemed inadequate, with some planned initiatives not yet realized. Comprehensive solutions, including the construction of flood barriers at the gulf entrance and the expansion of upper flood retention areas, could take up to 20 years. The Chao Phraya 2 diverter project may require modification to a tunnel system to avoid land disputes.
Experts are urging Thailand to embrace a "living with water" strategy as part of its urban planning, particularly in regions along the Chao Phraya River that inhibit water flow. A failure to act promptly could spark a national debate on whether the capital should be relocated.
In terms of preparedness, cell broadcasts can issue early warnings, but clear evacuation plans and procedures are still lacking. Residents are advised to relocate their possessions to higher ground and evacuate immediately when warnings are issued, signaling an imminent flood threat.
Dr. Seree emphasized that this crisis stems from both natural phenomena and human activities, with global temperatures potentially rising by 2.6-3 degrees Celsius if unchecked. He urged the government to expedite environmental incentives and establish a centralized data platform for effective disaster management.