Bangkok: The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has projected that the economy will grow as expected at 2.2% in 2025, following a stronger-than-expected 2% expansion in November and a smaller negative inflation rate. The BOT has also reported that the problem of the strong baht is beginning to ease after close monitoring.
According to Thai News Agency, Ms. Chayawadee Chaiyanan, Assistant Governor for Corporate Relations and Spokesperson of the BOT, revealed during the BOT Monthly Briefing that the Thai economy in November 2025 expanded from the previous month, driven by strong foreign demand. Exports of goods, excluding gold, increased by 2.0% from the previous month, expanding in several categories, particularly jewelry and electronics. Additionally, tourism revenue increased due to higher spending by long-haul tourists, leading to corresponding increases in related service sector activity. Domestic demand overall expanded due to a 3.3% month-on-month increase in private investment, as well as capital expenditures by both the central government and state enterprises. However, private consumption decreased slightly by 0.3% from the previous month, due to reduced oil and electricity consumption, despite continued growth in consumer goods and services. Industrial production declined in several categories, partly due to temporary factors such as shutdowns for refinery maintenance in the petroleum sector and production halts due to flooding in southern Thailand in the food sector, as well as a slowdown in both domestic and international demand.
In terms of economic stability, the overall inflation rate was -0.49%, less than the previous month's -0.76%, driven by the fresh food category due to higher vegetable prices resulting from flooding. The core inflation rate was 0.66%, remaining positive near the previous month's 0.61%. Public transportation fares, food delivery, and personal care items increased, while cooking ingredient prices decreased. The current account showed a deficit in the services, income, and transfers balance, as well as the trade balance. Employment in the labor market remained stable.
The Thai economy is expected to continue receiving momentum from increased activity in the service sector, driven by the continued recovery of tourism and positive factors in private consumption supported by government measures. Key factors to monitor include the recovery of industrial production, the impact of the strengthening baht, the recovery of businesses after the floods, the impact of the Thai-Cambodian situation, and the effects of US import tariffs.
Ms. Chayawadee added that private consumption is expected to improve in December due to government economic stimulus measures and spending during the New Year festivities. The economy for the entire year 2025 is projected to grow as expected at 2.2%, with some sectors exceeding expectations, such as domestic and international tourism and trade, while others, like industrial production, are underperforming. This assessment already includes various factors, including the flood situation.
The Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) for November 2025 was negative 4.2%, down from 0.0% in October. While exports grew more than expected, most export-oriented production continued, but some areas, such as the temporary closure of a refinery (expected to reopen in December) and the impact of flooding, could cause production disruptions. However, exports remained strong due to existing inventory.
Regarding the issue of the strong baht, the Bank of Thailand spokesperson acknowledged that the baht has appreciated excessively beyond economic fundamentals, stemming from various factors. The Bank of Thailand is closely monitoring the economic impact, which has been found to affect confidence. The Bank of Thailand has implemented measures to manage the situation, which have somewhat mitigated the impact. The Bank of Thailand expects the baht's value to improve by the end of the year compared to the past period.