Bangkok: Concerns have emerged over the potential contraction of Thai exports this year due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East, despite a 9.9% expansion recorded in February.
According to Thai News Agency, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) is closely monitoring the impact of the conflict, expressing concerns that Thai exports may contract throughout the year. Notably, Thailand's exports in February 2026 amounted to US$29,439.7 million, marking a 9.9% increase and sustaining growth for 20 consecutive months. Excluding oil-related products, gold, and strategic equipment, the growth rate was higher at 11.0%. However, imports in February totaled US$32,273 million, a 31.8% increase, resulting in a trade deficit of US$2,833 million. The primary driver of export growth has been electronics and electrical appliances, supported by advancements in technology and diversification of supply chains amidst geopolitical tensions. Agricultural products and food exports also showed strong performance, particularly fresh fruits like durian, rambutan, longan, and pineapple.
Exports in February 2026 experienced a slowdown from January's 24.4% growth, achieving a value of US$31,573 million. Nevertheless, key factors such as sustained demand for electronics and ICT infrastructure, continued global industrial production growth, and the expansion of high-potential agricultural products due to niche demand and seasonal elements supported February's performance. Cumulatively, exports for January-February 2026 reached US$61,012 million, a 17% increase. However, with imports totaling US$67,149 million, the trade deficit for the first two months amounted to US$6,137 million.
TPSO assessed that the Middle East conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, is likely to impact Thai exports from March onwards. Three scenarios were evaluated for the impact on 2026 exports: a best-case scenario with 1% growth to US$28,235 million per month, a medium-term scenario with a -1% contraction to US$27,522 million per month, and a worst-case scenario with a -3% contraction to US$26.8 billion per month. The Ministry of Commerce plans to closely monitor the situation and expects to revise its export forecast in April 2026 from the original target of 2-3%. Additionally, geopolitical risks such as the US invoking Section 122, reducing import tariffs from Thailand, are anticipated to boost exports within a 150-day period for the Section 301 investigation, with results expected by the end of the year.