Jerusalem: The conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, the United States, and Israel is escalating without an evident resolution.
According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Dr. Manoch Aree has provided a comprehensive analysis of the complexities surrounding this conflict and the significant shift in global dynamics it represents.
The strategy adopted by Iran, referred to as the "head-and-death" strategy, involves preparing for the loss of high-ranking leaders, such as the recent assassination of Iran's Secretary-General of the National Security Council by Israel. This tactic aims to weaken Iran's leadership, hoping for defections within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or the regular military to destabilize the regime. However, Dr. Manoch argues that Iran has anticipated such attacks, maintaining a strong succession plan to ensure continued resilience and retaliation capabilities. Iran also claims to have new weapons, enabling it to sustain the war for at least another six months.
The United States, under Donald Trump's administration, is perceived as entering the conflict "unprepared" and potentially trapped by Israel's involvement. The lack of support from traditional allies like NATO, the UK, France, and Germany highlights this isolation. Meanwhile, former adversaries of Iran, such as Saudi Arabia, remain neutral, further complicating the US position. Within the US government, dissent has emerged, with resignations over the perception that Iran does not pose an immediate threat to the nation.
Dr. Manoch also highlights the economic dimensions of this conflict, with China and Russia supporting Iran. The strategic use of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran pressures countries to choose sides, influencing global trade dynamics. Nations wishing to ensure safe passage or oil purchases may need to negotiate with Iran or switch to the yuan for transactions. This economic warfare underscores the broader geopolitical shifts accompanying the military conflict.
In the event that the United States faces unacceptable conditions from Iran, such as significant reparations, Dr. Manoch outlines three potential strategies: conducting airstrikes to weaken Iran's regime; resorting to extreme measures like nuclear weapons, which would damage US legitimacy; or abruptly withdrawing troops under the pretext of victory and leaving Israel to manage the aftermath. Despite these scenarios, Dr. Manoch anticipates the conflict will continue to escalate due to the challenging nature of negotiations and Iran's likely resolve to resist unfavorable terms.