Bangkok: The fiscal economy is projected to continue expanding by November 2025, driven primarily by a significant boost in exports, which have expanded for the 17th consecutive month. However, underlying concerns about economic stimulus measures and the ongoing Thai-Cambodian border conflict remain prevalent.

According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Vinit Visetsuwannapoom, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office, disclosed that merchandise exports significantly contributed to the economic performance in November. These exports, which have shown consistent growth, were complemented by stable private consumption and investment compared to the previous year. Notably, the number of newly registered passenger cars surged by 15.4 percent from the same period last year. The consumer confidence index also saw an increase, rising to 53.2 from 51.9 in the preceding month, bolstered by initiatives like the "Half-Price Plus" economic stimulus measure and various tourism promotion efforts.

The total value of merchandise exports was reported at US$27,445.6 million, marking an increase of 7.1 percent for the 17th consecutive month. Exports to major trading partners such as India, the United States, and the European Union showed remarkable growth, expanding by 64.6 percent, 37.9 percent, and 9.2 percent, respectively. Conversely, exports to Japan and China experienced declines of -8.9 percent and -7.8 percent, respectively. Private sector investment indicators remained stable, with investment in machinery and equipment, as evidenced by the volume of capital goods imports, increasing by 13.9 percent.

The industrial confidence index received support from government spending initiatives such as the "Half-Price Plus" project, the "Travel Well, Get Cashback" campaign, and welfare card top-ups. Moreover, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November 2025 rose slightly to 56.8 from 56.6 in the previous month. While foreign tourist arrivals decreased by -7.5%, totaling 2.91 million, domestic tourism reached 23.1 million. Economic stability indicators remained positive, reflected in a headline inflation rate of -0.49% in November, a core inflation rate of 0.66%, a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 65.2% at the end of October, and robust international reserves of US$274.7 billion by the end of November.

Policy interest rates in many countries are on a downward trend due to low inflation, influenced by the US Federal Reserve's direction towards interest rate cuts. This shift has gradually eased the tightness in global financial markets following a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia. However, further economic data from various agencies is necessary to fully assess the impact of the border conflict, which had previously disrupted economic activities.