Bangkok: The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has expressed concerns that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could have a detrimental impact on Thailand's GDP, potentially leading to a surge in energy prices and shipping rates. They also highlighted the risk of a container shortage in the global system and advised exporters to return containers to their countries of origin rather than storing them at other ports. The committee is considering revising its GDP growth forecast, with a possible reduction to just 1.3-1.6%.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Kriengkrai Thianukul, President of the Federation of Thai Industries, noted that the escalating Middle East conflict is affecting global economic stability and security. The situation has caused oil and natural gas prices in the futures market to rise and remain high for the next 1-3 months, impacting the transportation of goods and air travel. If the conflict persists, it could lead to higher domestic energy prices and affect the tourism sector due to flight cancellations. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) estimates that the conflict could reduce Thailand's economic growth in 2026 to as low as 1.3-1.6%, prompting the JSCCIB to adjust their forecasts.
The JSCCIB is working with government agencies to prepare countermeasures for the situation. A meeting chaired by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul was held to assess the situation and explore opportunities, such as attracting foreign investment and exports in areas like food security and healthcare services. Comprehensive measures have been established to address economic impacts, assist Thai citizens, manage fuel shortages, and control transportation costs to mitigate the impact on businesses and the public.
The JSCCIB remains hopeful that the Middle Eastern conflict will subside soon, as prolonged unrest could increase costs and impact the tourism sector, especially affecting the expected 700,000-800,000 tourists from the Middle East by 2025. Mr. Kriengkrai noted that while the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused crude oil prices to surge to $150, the current situation has not led to such high prices due to abundant supply and low global consumption. The Ministry of Energy reassures that Thailand has sufficient oil reserves and is prepared to manage prices through the oil fund mechanism. However, rising LNG prices could affect electricity production costs.
Mr. Phumin Harinsut, Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, highlighted the impact on shipping rates, particularly due to energy prices and container shortages. The crisis has led to containers being stranded at ports, causing a global supply shortage and increased shipping rates. Exporters are advised to return shipments to their countries of origin to avoid additional costs.
Dr. Yanyong Thaicharoen, Senior Executive Vice President of the Thai Bankers Association, emphasized the need to monitor global oil price trends, as a $10 increase could raise overall inflation by 0.4%. Despite external shocks, Thailand's economy remains strong, with the Oil Fund managing supply and prices.
Mr. Kriengkrai further discussed the risks from US trade measures, which could affect Thai exports to the US. The JSCCIB hopes the new government will leverage investor confidence to maintain stability and mitigate the impact of higher energy costs. They call for expedited economic policy implementation, economic restructuring, regulatory reforms, workforce upskilling, and support for investments to foster growth under the "Reinvent Thailand" approach.
Despite the challenges, the JSCCIB maintains its 2026 economic growth forecast at 1.6-2.0 percent, with exports expected to contract by -1.5 to -0.5 percent and inflation projected to expand by 0.2 percent.