Bangkok: The tense situation in the Middle East, stemming from the attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, has become a matter of close global attention due to its direct impact on energy stability and the global economic system. Associate Professor Dr. Danuwat Sakarik, from the Faculty of Public Administration at the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), has analyzed the overall picture and potential scenarios.

According to Thai News Agency, the attack led to retaliation from Iran, both militarily and through economic strategies, most notably the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. If this route were closed or disrupted, it would have a massive impact on the global crude oil supply.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Danuwat divided the severity of the situation into three stages. In the short term, if the fighting is contained and ends quickly, oil prices may only temporarily surge, and the global economy will be able to continue functioning. In the medium-term, if the situation persists, oil prices could soar above $100 per barrel, fueling high inflation and slowing down the global economy. The worst-case scenario involves the conflict escalating and spiraling out of control, potentially leading to a global economic downturn.

Thailand is quite sensitive to oil prices, as the impact is transmitted across various sectors. Rising oil prices lead to increased transportation and production costs, directly impacting food prices and the cost of living. Energy-intensive industries such as airlines, logistics, and tourism will be the first to be affected. Currently, Thailand has oil reserves sufficient for approximately 60 days, but a prolonged situation could pose a supply-side risk.

Governments and central banks worldwide face the challenge of controlling inflation while simultaneously supporting the economy. For Thailand, policy flexibility is crucial, as the economy is driven by geopolitical factors. Intervention to alleviate the cost of living could create an increased fiscal burden in the future.

Associate Professor Dr. Danuwat emphasized that the world is not only moving away from globalization but is also entering a new world order where international political factors have a tremendous influence on the economy. Entrepreneurs and investors should monitor the situation on an industry-by-industry basis, as each sector is impacted differently, and should closely watch for volatility in financial markets and investor confidence.