Bangkok: Olar Thinbangtiao, an Associate Professor at Burapha University, has raised concerns over the stabilizing popularity of the Orange Party as the 2026 Thai elections approach. He warns that Thai politics is at risk of a State Capture scenario.
According to Thai News Agency, Olar, during his analysis on the "Share the News" program on MCOT NEWS FM 100.5, highlighted that the People's Party's popularity remains stable and is ranked among the top in opinion polls despite facing criticisms. The public views it as a hopeful alternative compared to other parties with more blemished histories. While the People's Party's flaws have been examined to diminish its reputation, society considers these issues less severe than those associated with other parties.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Olar pointed out the increasing influence of capital groups in Thai politics, indicating that the country is experiencing state capture. He revealed that more than 100 billion baht from both official and unofficial sources have been invested in the election. Vote buying has become prevalent, and campaign promises are losing their impact as political parties fail to honor them. The Election Commission's inaction on enforcing accountability has led voters to focus on immediate financial gains over broader welfare.
In terms of government formation strategy, the main goal is to prevent the People's Party from securing an election victory. Olar believes that the Pheu Thai Party is likely to lead the government, with the Democrat Party playing a significant role in shaping its public image and garnering votes. Post-election decisions will largely hinge on benefit negotiations between party leaders rather than ideological alignments or party MPs' choices.
Olar also discussed shifting dynamics in key areas like Chiang Mai province, where recent polls show the People's Party leading in popularity. This trend reflects the waning political influence of Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra. Despite his efforts to engage with the region, his personal appeal has not surged, as voters no longer support him out of past sympathies.