Bangkok: Political experts are scrutinizing the implications of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s ongoing prison term and its potential impact on the dynamics within Thai political parties. Sukhum Nuansakul, a political scientist and former president of Ramkhamhaeng University, has highlighted the strategic moves surrounding Thaksin’s return to prison, suggesting it serves as a tactic to maintain the cohesion of the Pheu Thai Party. Sukhum argues that Thaksin’s presence is pivotal in preventing party members from defecting, though he remains skeptical about the party’s chances of revival within a four-month timeframe, especially if the House of Representatives dissolves prematurely.

According to Thai News Agency, the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions has ruled that Thaksin’s stay at the Police General Hospital cannot be suspended, thereby imposing an additional year of imprisonment. Thaksin’s decision to face the verdict and serve his sentence has played a crucial role in retaining a significant number of Pheu Thai Party MPs. These members remain loyal, trusting the party for their political sustenance. Sukhum also notes that Thaksin’s influence continues to be a stabilizing factor for the party.

The political scientist further analyzes the potential rise of the Bhumjaithai Party, especially if it manages to revitalize half of its structure and stimulate economic growth, potentially increasing its number of MPs to over 100. Sukhum emphasizes the importance of the party’s performance over the next few months, particularly its ability to execute projects like “Half-Half,” which could secure more votes.

Sukhum remarks that the majority of the cabinet is expected to remain unchanged, but the Bhumjaithai Party’s efforts to recruit knowledgeable outsiders indicate its dedication to achieving economic progress. He observes that the parties in government are keen to produce tangible results swiftly, and there is some optimism regarding external ministers. Should the Bhumjaithai Party demonstrate improvements in economic metrics, Sukhum believes it could grow into a more prominent political entity.

In conclusion, Sukhum advises monitoring the Pheu Thai Party’s performance as it transitions to the opposition. He criticizes some of their tactics, such as filing lawsuits, suggesting these approaches lack decisiveness. The evolving political landscape remains uncertain, with the actions of both the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties being pivotal in shaping Thailand’s political future.