Bangkok: Political analysts have voiced their opinions on the Supreme Court’s recent decision to imprison former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, considering its implications for the Pheu Thai Party and the broader political landscape. Thaksin remains a significant figure in Thai politics, but his influence is perceived to be waning.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Stithorn Thananithichot, a lecturer at the Faculty of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University, shared insights into the evolving political scenario following Thaksin’s one-year prison sentence in a 14th-degree case. Despite his imprisonment, Thaksin still plays a role in the political equation, albeit more as a spiritual leader guiding Pheu Thai Party members from behind the scenes.
Mr. Stithorn emphasized that while Thaksin’s symbolic presence remains, his ability to influence the Pheu Thai Party’s direction is likely reduced. The party’s decision to support Chaikasem Nitisiri does not necessarily indicate Thaksin’s continued influence or guarantee allegiance from its remaining MPs. The firm commitments of other political parties, such as Bhumjaithai and the coalition government, to the Prachachon Party further complicate Pheu Thai’s position.
The lecturer pointed out that the political landscape is shifting, with the Pheu Thai Party facing challenges in retaining its influence. The potential dissolution of Parliament and subsequent elections could see a decrease in the party’s strength, as it struggles to recover amid Thaksin’s absence. The Bhumjaithai and Prachachon parties are poised to dominate the upcoming political contests, overshadowing Pheu Thai.
Looking ahead, Mr. Stithorn noted that Thaksin’s imprisonment may hinder his ability to actively campaign or rally support for the Pheu Thai Party during elections. While Thaksin can still offer advice or lend his name to campaigns, his physical absence is likely to weaken the party’s electoral prospects. The possibility of MPs leaving Pheu Thai is expected to increase once the political landscape becomes clearer post-election.
As the political timeline unfolds, with Parliament potentially dissolving within the next four months, the Pheu Thai Party faces an uncertain future. Mr. Stithorn suggested that MPs currently with Pheu Thai may need to reconsider their affiliations and explore opportunities with other political parties to secure their positions in forthcoming elections. The evolving political dynamics indicate a possible shift towards a multi-party system, with the Bhumjaithai and Prachachon parties taking center stage.