Bangkok: SCB EIC Economic and Business Research Center has highlighted the urgent need for the Thai government to accelerate negotiations in response to the increased import taxes imposed by the United States, known as ‘Trump’s taxes’. The center’s analysis indicates that Thailand faces a significant impact, with the nation being hit hard by a 36% tariff, amid risks from a global trade contraction.
According to Thai News Agency, SCB EIC’s analysis suggests that the announcement of substantial US import tariffs on April 2 could elevate the effective US tariff rate by 18-22%, exerting considerable pressure on both the US economy and global trade dynamics. This development is anticipated to substantially diminish Thailand’s economic growth rate in 2025 from the previously forecasted 2.4%.
Thailand is currently positioned among the nations most affected by the US tariffs, ranking 20th out of 185 US trading partners globally, and 9th in Asia, with imposed tariffs significantly higher than both the global average
of 16% and the Asian average of 21%. This is largely due to the substantial trade deficit the US maintains with Thailand.
SCB EIC foresees a pronounced impact on the Thai economy, particularly in merchandise exports, due to Thailand’s prominent export relationship with the US and the potential economic slowdown of major trading partners like China. Additionally, the heightened trade competition locally and internationally, coupled with an investment ‘Wait and See’ attitude, poses further challenges.
The center advises that the Thai government should focus on three critical areas to alleviate the effects of this extensive tariff package. These include reducing the trade surplus with the US, addressing non-tariff trade barriers, and resolving other issues beneficial to both nations, as outlined in the United States Trade Representative (USTR) report on international trade barriers from March 2025.
While pursuing negotiations, it is crucial for the Thai government to balance national benefits and consider pro
tective measures for domestic producers affected by imported products. This includes enforcing product quality laws, preventing dumping, and fostering regional cooperation to explore and expand new market opportunities and production chains.
SCB EIC further clarifies that Thailand’s inclusion in the high-tariff group is attributed to several factors, including the US’s elevated tariff imposition on Asian countries, averaging 21% compared to the global 16%. This stems from the US’s retaliatory tariff strategy, which considers the trade deficit it holds with these countries.
The US’s 36% tariff on Thailand places it 20th among 185 global trading partners and 9th in Asia, trailing countries such as the CLMV nations, Sri Lanka, Iraq, and Bangladesh. The heightened tariffs are influenced by Thailand’s 9.8% average tariff on US goods, contrasted with the US’s 3.3% charge on Thai imports, particularly affecting agricultural sectors. Additionally, non-tariff barriers and issues related to intellectual property, ser
vices, and labor freedoms contribute to the US’s trade deficit assessment with Thailand.