Bangkok: Krungthai COMPASS has reported that the Thai economy grew by 2.8% in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing expectations and achieving its highest growth rate in three quarters. Despite this achievement, the economy remains vulnerable to risks arising from the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which has led to high energy prices and uneven economic growth across sectors.
According to Thai News Agency, the growth of 2.8% compared to the same period last year reflects a positive economic trajectory but highlights underlying challenges. The prolonged Middle East conflict, now in its third month, continues to drive energy prices higher, posing significant risks to Thailand's economic stability. The Krungthai COMPASS report emphasizes that strategic government measures and increased investments in clean energy, technology, and future industries are crucial to supporting the economy.
The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) maintains its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2026 at 1.5-2.5%, with a median value of 2.0%. This projection already considers the impact of government interventions aimed at addressing the energy price crisis. Krungthai COMPASS suggests that targeted assistance measures and investments in energy transition could mitigate longer-term economic impacts.
Private sector investment emerges as another critical area to observe. Investment promotion applications from the Board of Investment (BOI) reached 1 trillion baht in the first quarter, marking a 2.4-fold increase from the previous year. This surge was primarily driven by digital technology and artificial intelligence (AI) businesses, which hold the potential to become major economic drivers in Thailand's future.
Despite these positive indicators, the Thai economy still displays uneven growth, characterized as a K-shaped economy. While exports grew by 17.6% in the first quarter, primarily due to technology products, the manufacturing sector experienced only a 0.9% growth, indicating that the economic recovery has not uniformly affected all sectors.
Krungthai COMPASS underscores the importance of accelerating investments in renewable energy, enhancing productivity, and developing future industries to foster diversified growth and sustainably increase national income.