Bangkok: The Thai economy in the first quarter of 2026 showed promising signs of recovery amidst volatility and challenges. Economic growth rates and fundamental factors remain key issues that investors and businesses need to closely monitor, according to Dr. Veera Teerapat.

According to Thai News Agency, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure for the first quarter of 2026 expanded by 2.8%, exceeding market expectations and representing continued growth from the previous quarter's 2.5% expansion. The main engine driving this growth was investment from both the public and private sectors.

The most noteworthy development is the strong growth in private sector investment, expanding by 10.1%, marking the first double-digit growth in 11 years. This was driven by supportive measures such as BOI Fast Plus, which accelerates the approval of investment projects. As a result, Moodies Rating upgraded Thailand's credit outlook from negative to "stable."

Although the overall GDP outlook looks good, Professor Weera noted that the performance of listed companies on the Stock Exchange of Thailand shows that a number of large companies have not seen any increase in sales, or only very slight increases, even though their profits have been managed to remain stable. Furthermore, while the oil refinery sector recorded a profit of approximately 30 billion baht from oil inventory in the first quarter, it may face losses in the following quarter due to falling crude oil prices.

Although exports grew by 17.8% in the first quarter, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to dependence on the global economy. At the same time, rising energy prices, particularly diesel which has increased to 40-50 baht per liter, have become a significant cost in the logistics system, which will be reflected in the prices of goods and services. As a result, the forecast for the entire year is likely to be around 3%.

The government is preparing to launch a "Thai Help Thai" project to support the economy, alongside a crackdown on nominee businesses in major tourist destinations such as Pattaya, Phuket, and Samui, where unusually high proportions of foreign shareholdings have been found, in order to maintain confidence and ensure fair competition.

However, Professor Weera believes that the Thai economy is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2026. Despite positive impetus from tourism and government projects, businesses, especially SMEs, will still face sluggish purchasing power. As Warren Buffett said, "When it rains gold, get buckets to catch it," meaning businesses must be prepared for opportunities while also carefully managing rising costs.