Bangkok: Thailand’s economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter of 2025, prompting the state planning agency to cut its full-year forecast and warn of weak exports in 2026. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reported Q3 GDP expanded by 1.2% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter.

According to Thai News Agency, on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP contracted by 0.6%, the first decline in two-and-a-half years, though the agency believes robust consumption will prevent a “Technical Recession.” The NESDC cut its 2025 full-year GDP growth forecast to 2.0% and projected 2026 growth to slow further to a midpoint of 1.7% (range: 1.2%-2.2%).

This dimmer outlook is primarily due to an expected 0.3% contraction in exports in 2026, linked to the impact of potential U.S. tariffs. Other data showed headline inflation remained negative at -0.7%. The agency urged the government to accelerate budget disbursement, seek new export markets, and support the agricultural sector to revitalize growth.