General

Three factors pushed inflation down to a 21-month low

Deputy Director-General of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPP) revealed three factors that caused inflation to drop to the lowest level in 21 months, with headline inflation rising in May 2023. only 0.53% from oil, electricity and food Slowing down for the fifth consecutive month Expect inflation in June 2023 to continue to slow down

Mr. Wichanan Niwatchinda, deputy director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPP) revealed that Thailand's consumer price index in May 2023 was 107.19 compared to the same month last year, which was 106.62, resulting in inflation. general rose only 0.53 percent (YoY), slowing down for the fifth consecutive month and the lowest in the past 21 months, mainly due to the drop in fuel prices. and electricity bills, as well as continually decelerating food prices. In addition, the price base used to calculate inflation in May 2022 was at a high level, resulting in inflation.

This month is quite slow. and if looking at the inflation rate of Thailand compared to other countries (Latest data in April 2023) found that Thailand is in the group of countries with low inflation rates. And the lowest in ASEAN from 7 countries that announced the numbers, including Lao PDR, the Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam.

However, the inflation rate in May 2023, with the movement of prices of goods and services as follows: Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 3.99 percent in line with the increase in prices of important products such as vegetables and fruits (lemon, onion, eggplant, watermelon, rambutan), and chicken eggs due to inclement weather resulting in limited supply in the market. together with the increasing demand from the opening of the semester Non-alcoholic beverages (coffee/tea (hot/cold), soft drinks, instant coffee powder) and household meals. (finished side dishes) Curry rice/rice box, noodles) prices increase according to the cost. production and there are also important products that have reduced prices such as pork, snakehead fish, vegetable oil, tamarind, coconut (dried/grated fruit), durian banana, and rose apple.

Other non-food and beverage categories fell by 1.83 percent in line with the decline in prices of important products such as fuel in the group of diesel, gasohol and benzene, and electricity bills. cell phone receiver television set air conditioner washing machine, facial powder, face mask and cable TV membership fees As for products with higher prices, such as cooking gas and public fares (airplanes, taxis, motorcycle taxis). small bus/songthaew, boat), educational fee, things about cleaning (insect repellant) Toilet cleaner) and personal service fee (Men's/women's hair styling, manicure and pedicure expenses)

In addition, core inflation When deducting fresh food and energy increased by 1.55 percent, slowing down from April 2023 higher by 1.66 percent by the consumer price index this month Compared to the previous month, it decreased by 0.71 percent following prices in other categories other than food and beverages. decreased by 1.59 percent, especially energy prices Including fuel in the group of diesel, gasohol, benzene, electricity cost And things related to cleaning (detergents, fabric softeners, bathroom cleaners) for products with higher prices such as facial foam, body powder and body soap, while product prices

in the category of food and non-alcoholic beverages slightly higher by 0.51 percent, such as vegetables and fruits (cilantro, spring onion, kale, tangerine, durian, mangosteen), eggs, food to order and condiments. Products with lower prices include pork, mango garlic, vegetable oil and instant noodles. For average inflation for the first 5 months (Jan. – May.) 2023 compared to the same period last year. 2.96 percent higher (AoA)

However, the FPO looks at the inflation trend in June 2023 is expected to slow down continuously. Or there is a chance to shrink according to the decrease of products in the energy group. In particular, the price of fuel tends to decrease and is considerably lower than the same month last year. and lower electricity bills due to government assistance measures. The price base used to calculate inflation in June 2022 was quite high, coupled with measures to reduce the cost of living. and supervising the prices of goods and services by government agencies. both the Ministry of Commerce and related agencies that continue to operate by weather variability Improved domestic demand And the cost of production of goods and services remained at a high level, including cooking gas prices, wages, and interest rate hikes. May cause inflation to have some chance to fluctuate. which must be followed

closely next

However, the Ministry of Commerce expects headline inflation in 2023 to be between 1.7 - 2.7 percent (the median value is 2.2), and if the situation changes significantly, it will be reviewed again.

May 2023 increased due to the recovery of past election results. measures from the government that help alleviate people's cost of living in many ways, it can be seen that if the Thai economy recovers continuously and the political situation is clear should help consumer confidence continue to improve.-Thai News Agency

Source: Thai News Agency