According to Thai News Agency, Thai shareholders, particularly the Thai government, still hold shares exceeding 40% – Vayupakdi Fund 19.84%, Social Security 15.11%, Ministry of Finance 4.76% – and private sectors such as BTS 1.45% and Bangkok Insurance 1.03%. Compared to the shareholding proportion of the group claimed to be ‘Hun Sen’s’, the exact amount cannot be determined. Even if it is assumed that all nominee holdings belong to Hun Sen’s group, it can only be collected at 20-26%. Thai NVDR holds 13.87%, CGS Sinapore 4.87%, Bank of New York Melon 3.02%, South East Asia (type C) 2.07%, Alpha Chartered Energy 2.04%. It can be seen that Alpha, which is believed to be a representative of Hun Sen’s group, has only a direct shareholding of 2.04%, and the more extreme estimate of 20%-26% is still less than the government’s 40% (19.84%+15.11%+4.76%) and the private sector’s 2.5% (BTS+BLA). Therefore, even with the sending of two people who are expected to represent the new shareholders, the Hun Sen group, with a
20%-26% (or possibly less) shareholding, will not be able to control or direct any of the Bangchak Group’s business operations.

There is no information indicating that BCP has any plans to explore for energy drilling in the Koh Kood area, despite claims of such intentions from the Hun Sen group’s shareholding in Bangchak. Even though the goal of the failed takeover of Bangchak was to use it as a tool to gain benefits in energy sources through the MOU signed with Thailand, the rift between Thaksin and Hun Sen and the collapse of the Paethongtarn government in favor of a short-term government led by Anutin further reinforces the point that any risks from the fund and its stake in Bangchak are no longer meaningful and almost impossible.

Mr. Suwat analyzed that the Hun Sen group’s potential takeover of Bangchak, if rumors are to be believed, has failed due to the inability to consolidate sufficient shareholding. He questioned whether the declining share prices of BCP, BSRC, and BCPG are unreasonable. Mr. Suwat views this rumor as either a crisis or an opportunity for investing in BCP Group stocks, particularly BCPG, which has seen significant fundamental changes and remarkable profit growth, but remains undervalued by investors.

Affiliated companies, for example, see growth potential from four US power plants benefiting from growing data center demand in the US, as well as from the 600 MW Monsoon wind farm in Laos, which began production on August 22, 2025. BCP’s profits are expected to recover significantly in the second half of 2025, driven by significantly higher refining margins, inventory gains from higher oil prices, and possibly a slight increase in marketing margins due to the change in the Energy Minister. BSRC’s profits are expected to recover due to improved refining margins, inventory gains, and marketing margins.