Bangkok: Exports from Thailand are expected to continue growing in 2026, albeit at a slower pace, due to factors such as US tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
According to Thai News Agency, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) has projected that Thai exports will experience slower growth in 2026 compared to 2025. The slowdown is attributed to the impact of US tariffs, both current and forthcoming, along with geopolitical tensions, changes in global trade structures, and the strengthening of the Thai baht.
Mr. Nantapong Chiraleartpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy, reported that in December 2025, Thailand's exports were valued at US$28,928.4 million, equivalent to 931,299 million baht, marking a 16.8% increase and the 18th month of consecutive growth. Excluding oil-related products, gold, and strategic materials, exports rose by 16.6%, largely driven by industrial goods such as electronics and electrical appliances. Total trade in December 2025 showed exports at US$28,928.4 million and imports at US$29,280.4 million, resulting in a trade deficit of US$352.0 million.
In terms of Thai baht, exports amounted to 931,299 million baht with a growth of 9.1%, while imports were 954,831 million baht, growing by 11.1%, leading to a trade deficit of 23,532 million baht. Industrial goods continued to be the primary growth driver, with exports in this category expanding by 20.3% in December, marking 21 consecutive months of growth. Key expanding products included computers, telephones, machinery, and circuit boards, while oil-related products, wood, and radio and television receivers saw contractions.
The agricultural and agro-industrial sectors saw a 2.8% expansion in December, breaking a five-month contraction trend. Agro-industrial products grew by 6.8%, led by pet food, processed chicken, and processed fruits, although some agricultural products continued to face challenges due to natural disasters and global competition.
Major export markets showed expansion across most sectors, with the US market growing by 54.3% for the 27th consecutive month, significantly contributing to overall export growth. Other markets such as China, Japan, the European Union, and ASEAN countries saw rebounds, while the CLMV and South Asian markets contracted due to economic slowdowns and reduced purchasing power.
For the full year of 2025, Thailand's exports were valued at US$339,635.0 million, a 12.9% increase from the previous year, or 11,138,480 million baht, a 5.5% increase, marking the highest export value in the nation's history. Imports for the year totaled US$344,943.0 million, also expanding by 12.9%, resulting in a trade deficit of US$5,307.9 million or 310,286 million baht.
Throughout 2025, industrial goods exports grew by 17.4%, driven by technology and electronics, while agricultural and agro-industrial exports contracted by 0.4% due to weather, costs, and competition. The US market expanded by 32.0%, China by 12.6%, the EU by 9.3%, and ASEAN by 6.9%.
Despite the anticipated slowdown in 2026 due to US tariffs, geopolitical instability, and Thai baht fluctuations, factors such as demand for technology and AI products, food security, and growth in emerging markets like India and Latin America are expected to support export growth. Additionally, new free trade agreements will offer further opportunities.
The Ministry of Commerce will continue monitoring global trade to address obstacles and bolster confidence among Thai exporters.
Source: Thai News Agency