Bangkok: TTB Analytics forecasts that the “Travel Well, Get a Refund 2025” stimulus package will generate over 5.9 billion baht for the hotel business, helping to revive and expand the industry in the final quarter of the year. It is expected to boost revenue for SMEs in the hotel industry in secondary cities by up to 3.5%. The analyst recommends that the government continue to stimulate tourism in secondary cities to support the growth of SMEs.
According to Thai News Agency, the economic analysis center of Thailand, TTB Analytics, revealed that in 2025, the Thai tourism sector will be under pressure from both international tourist arrivals, which are contracting for the first time since 2014 (excluding the COVID-19 period), and domestic tourism, which is showing signs of continued slowdown from 6.8% growth in 2024 to only 4.7% in 2025. This rate is low compared to the 24.4% growth in 2023. Therefore, in 2025, the hotel business may contract by approximately 0.4%, to a value of 359 billion baht. In particular, large hotels are expected to contract by 2.1%, with revenue at 190 billion baht, compared to 194 billion baht in the previous year, due to the more severe than anticipated decline in international tourist arrivals. While smaller hotels continue to benefit from domestic tourism, which is expanding but at a slight slowdown, they are still maintaining revenue growth of approximately 169 billion baht in 2025, an increase of 1.5% from the previous y
ear.
The overall slowdown has led to a significant government role in stimulating the tourism sector through the “Travel Well, Get a Refund 2025” policy, particularly three measures to boost demand for Thailand’s hotel sector. These measures include tax deductions for individuals and corporations, as well as accelerated government spending on training, meetings, and seminars. The policy is designed to encourage spending in secondary cities, offering higher tax deductions for such expenditures.
TTB Analytics views the three measures aimed at stimulating demand in the hotel sector as generating an additional 5.9 billion baht. This includes revenue from the private sector, comprising tourism income from personal income tax deductions and corporate income tax deductions for domestic training and seminars (estimated at around 3.1 billion baht if fully utilized), and over 2.8 billion baht from government agencies accelerating disbursement of training, meeting, and seminar expenses. These funds are expected to rebound hotel revenue in 2025 from a projected 0.4% contraction to an estimated 1.6% growth. In particular, with secondary cities currently accounting for 28% of total revenue, SME hotel businesses located in these cities are expected to benefit significantly from these additional incentives, potentially increasing their revenue by up to 3.5% year-on-year.
The stimulus package is also expected to play a significant role in generating revenue through tourist spending, especially in the final quarter of the year. This will help revive the hotel sector, which was previously expected to contract, and encourage continued growth. However, the focus will be on stimulating demand in the short term, although it also includes measures to manage supply, such as tax incentives to support hotel and accommodation improvements to enhance their attractiveness to tourists, particularly for SMEs in secondary cities.
Looking ahead to 2026, TTB Analytics suggests that the government implement continuous measures to support and stimulate tourism, especially targeting groups with high tourism potential. Increased cooperation between the central and local government and private sectors is recommended to develop domestic tourist attractions, enhance publicity, and develop tourism routes and formats that better suit Thai tourists. This would help generate more revenue to drive the economy from upstream to downstream at the regional level.